Navigating the Red Sea: new transit times for Q4 shipping

Introduction

Cape routings are no longer the exception on Asia–Europe. They are the schedule. Adding nine to fourteen days to a transit does not simply push arrival dates back — it changes safety stock, it changes letter-of-credit windows, and it changes which SKUs are worth flying instead of floating.

Rebuilding The Schedules

We rebuilt every affected lane around actual sailing performance rather than published transit times. Where the gap between the two was widest, we split volume: the date-critical portion moves air or sea-air through Dubai, the rest takes the long water and arrives when it arrives.

The Inventory Conversation

The hardest part of this quarter has not been routing, it has been convincing planners to raise cover on a handful of lines rather than across the board. A blanket increase ties up cash on stock that was never at risk. We model it lane by lane instead.

Looking Ahead

Assume Cape routings hold through the next planning cycle. If the Red Sea reopens, transit shortens and you are early — a far cheaper mistake than the reverse.